Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Saradise Lost - Chapter Eighty-Five - Palin Popularity Goes Polar in Alaska

From: Ivan Moore
Subject: PRESS RELEASE: New Palin approval rating
To: "Ivan Moore"
Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2008, 7:54 PM


Anchorage, September 23, 2008 - In a new survey conducted September 20-22, Ivan Moore Research finds Sarah Palin's positive-negative rating in Alaska taking a real hit, for the first time since Palin was elected in November 2006. The survey was conducted with 500 likely voters in the State of Alaska, for a margin of error of 4.4%. The track of the last five Palin ratings is as follows, along with a comparison point from January 2008:

Rating --
January 2008 -------------------------- 82-11
July 18-22, 2008 ----------------------- 76-18
July 30-31, 2008 ----------------------- 78-15
August 9-12, 2008 --------------------- 80-13
August 30-September 2, 2008 ------- 82-13
September 20-22, 2008 ---------------68-27

The mid-July poll was fielded just after the Trooper Wooten controversy broke. The positive rating of 76% was down from previous measures in the 80's. Despite negative press from the Troopergate issue, the subsequent three polls through the end of September showed Palin's positive rating steadily increasing, and her negative steadily dropping. But in the last three weeks, we've seen damage, with a swing of 14 points from her positive to her negative.

Breakdowns by party affiliation and political ideology for the last two surveys are illustrative of the internal dynamics:

August 30-September 2 -- September 19-21 Swing

Democrats -- 60-33 -- 36-59 -- minus 25

Republicans -- 95-3 -- 93-5 -- minus 2

No party/Other party -- 82-12 -- 64-29 -- minus 17.5

Conservative -- 93-3 -- 88-9 -- minus 5.5

Moderate -- 83-13 -- 65-29 -- minus 17

Progressive -- 49-37 -- 23-68 -- minus 28.5

TOTAL -- 82-13 -- 68-27 -- minus 14

We're seeing the numbers cratering among ideological progressives and registered Democrats, probably indicative of the impact of the harsher tone Palin has adopted on the national campaign trail, and the growing fallout from Troopergate. Damage is also significant among moderates and non-affiliated voters, while Republicans and conservatives continue to be almost universally positive.

It should be noted, of course, that a 68-27 is still a very satisfactory rating. But it appears the days of 80 percent approvals in Alaska are over.

Questions and interview requests: Ivan Moore 907-727-7116


Anonymous said...

Thanks for this information. Seems like Alaska polls are hard to come by these days. I'm passing them on to folks at mudflats.

Anonymous said...

Shocking to me that anyone in Alaska still wants her. What with rape kits, censorship, abortion, CBS Couric interview, Russia, cannot name any other Supreme Court decision other than Roe v Wade (perhaps instead of creationism, maybe US History should be taught in Alaska, what say you?) This woman is soooo embarrasing, I would be ashamed.