Why is Chambliss Gambling on This "Closer"?

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the most polarizing figure in recent American politics, will be at a Sunday evening fundraiser, and four big Monday rallies for the closing day of Saxby Chamliss' narrowing U.S. Senate race. Is she there to throw red meat to "morans," or is she there to muck things up?

Sarah Palin will spend part of Sunday and most or all of Monday, campaigning for Senator Saxby Chambliss, in his bid to keep his seat from the strong challenge of Jim Martin. This move on the part of the Saxbee campaign is being widely perceived as one to use her ability as a "closer," that is - somebody who can cinch a deal.

Certainly, Palin has proven she can make her base base salivate. And many appearances by her in the Southeast United States during September and October drew huge, enraptured throngs. I'm sure Saxby's campaign will love throwing scraps of red meat out to the crowds greeting Palin. But her rabid stump style might just as well drive undecided voters toward Martin.

No doubt, the group plowing a lot of money into Georgia right now, the National Republican Trust PAC, has sent her the talking points she will use Sunday and Monday:

Barack Obama is just one seat away from TOTAL CONTROL

Obama will enact crushing new taxes to pay for immediate citizenship for 15 million illegal aliens

Obama is getting ready to enact a RADICAL AGENDA

Her NRT PAC and Our Country Deserves Better PAC handlers have already emailed or faxed the talking points to her. Her Sunday and Monday appearances will combine elements from their material with the disgustingly false strain exhibited in the NRSC ads that began airing Tuesday in Georgia.

Although we can only hope for another Palin moment (see definition #15), or even the long-hoped-for "Macaca" moment (it's coming sometime, trust me), Mooselini's Georgia appearance isn't merely a gamble. It may well also be a way to insert "the Palin Effect."

The anomolies of Alaska voter turnout on November 4th, 2008 haven't been adequately explained yet. National electronic vote manipulation experts are still poring through the remaining - and continuing - strangenesses. Essentially, Alaska voters reacted far differently in the booth on election day than pollsters had predicted, particularly in two statewide races.

Anchorage mayor Mark Begich was supposed to handily beat Senator Ted Stevens, who had been convicted of seven Federal felonies only days before. Begich narrowly squeaked by. Former Alaska Legislative House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz had been predicted to either soundly best or even trounce Rep. Don Young, who spent well over a million dollars on criminal legal fees his past year, and - by his own admission - is under multiple Federal investigations. Instead, Ethan Berkowitz was soundly trounced by Young.

The most often-used explanation in Alaska to these developments was that Palin turned out to be far more of an attraction for voters, than people expected. The most recent explanation has been that only polls conducted before early voting began here can be considered valid.

Whatever the reasons for these disparities, the two weeks after the election were very uncertain, as votes seemed to keep popping up in various categories. A few races are still in doubt. I'll call the mainstream narrative on how and why this occurred "The Palin Effect."

Even if Sarah screws up in Georgia - she'll probably be too tightly controlled for that to happen - if the vote there between Chambliss and Martin is quite close, or if it tends away from pollter's predictions in favor of Chambliss, watch for pundits and GOP apparatchiks to gather around the "Palin Effect" meme.

Not only will Georgia voters decide this important race Tuesday, but that day will also see President-elect Barack Obama meeting in Philadelphia with most US governors, at their annual U.S. Governors Association conference. In Anchorage yesterday, Palin's spokeseunuch, Bill McAllister attempted to pimp the possibility Obama might meet with Palin.

If Palin campaigns as negatively as I predict she will in Georgia on Sunday and Monday, it will be one of Obama's most generous gestures yet to the opposition.

We'll see.

Meanwhile, in some pre-Thanksgiving snark toward my turkey of a governor, I posted a thread early Wednesday afternoon at DailyKos, that asked, "If Obama offers Palin a job in his administration, what should it be?" I'm paraphrasing myself, but the thread turned into an interesting, sometimes hilarious read.

this article has been cross-posted at firedoglake's Oxdown Gazette