Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Answering a Couple of Questions About Diane Benson's Viability

As most readers here already know, I've been a strong advocate of Diane Benson for our next Representative in the U.S. Congress since the summer of 2006. I've been volunteering for her since then, whenever she has been a candidate.

The 2008 Alaska Democratic Primary race pits her against former Alaska Sate Legislature Representative Ethan Berkowitz. Berkowitz, long lauded by outsiders as our "up-and-coming Democratic Party leader," has been shown to lead Benson in the primary contest in two polls issued months ago. To my knowledge, no recent polling data on this August 26 contest is available. All polls issued so far show both Benson and Berkowitz defeating Young in November. The only reliable poll on a Berkowitz-Parnell matchup, shows Berkowitz losing narrowly.

I've posited that Benson as a November candidate would probably do better against Sean Parnell, the current Lieutenant Governor, and opponent of Rep. Don Young in the GOP primary, than would Berkowitz. I've been asked "why," in comments at this blog, and in conversations and e-mails.

I've also been asked why I think a November Benson candidate helps likely Democratic Party U.S. Senate seat victor Mark Begich more in the polling booth against Ted Stevens than would Berkowitz, should he beat Benson.

Berkowitz came into the Alaska legislature soon after moving to Alaska, fresh out of law school. After a short stint as a prosecutor in Anchorage, he was elected to the State House, where he soon emerged as a leader of his party's organization. It was a minority party, working in a climate dominated by one of the best organized majorities in recent state legislative history, here or elsewhere.


During Berkowitz's tenure in the State House, Parnell was elected to that body, then to the State Senate. In 2002, Parnell went on to become an oil company employee, where he remained until 2006, successfully running in the primary and general elections for the Lieutenant Governor position.

A Sean Parnell November campaign will attempt to portray him as an ally of the most popular governor in the USA. It will compare Parnell's role in - as disgusting to progressives that the legislation was - the crafting of bills that became law, and compare his success to the stymying of attempts by Berkowitz and other Democrats in the legislature to do what they couldn't.

Berkowitz, in his arguments about bad legislation and promotion of good alternatives over the years he served in Juneau, impressed me at the time as an example of why Alaska politicians need to be more like Democrats, than like Democrats suffering some sort of PTSD or battered wife syndrome. He talks now, when accepting union endorsements, of having stuck up for defined benefits as they exist for state tier one employees. But Berkowitz and others on both sides of the late 1990s-early 21st century side of the aisle in Juneau are responsible for the slippage that brought our new teachers from tier one to tier three.

I've got to say, though, that every time I watch Sean Parnell being asked a question Homer Simpson could deal with but Parnell can't, I wonder what this fuss might be about. But, as George Bush illustrates, spin plus money can get a village idiot elected. Twice.

It is important at this time, just before the 2nd quarter of 2008 campaign finance figures get released, to look back at some interesting data I've collected from the 2006 election.

In that race, the Benson campaign received minimal support from the Democrats. The Party's head, Jake Metcalfe, didn't really want to run a U.S. House candidate against Young. After Benson won the primary, the Party gave her out-of-date data, over-charged her for it, and did nothing to help her organization, or to press Party luminaries to endorse the campaign. Neither Tony Knowles nor Ethan Berkowitz stood with her in public to endorse her fight against Young, who she was openly challenging to debate important issues.

Looking at the 2006 races district by district, Benson polled more votes than Knowles/Berkowitz in 19 out of 40 of them. This by a person who had no more than a grassroots organization. Benson polled over Knowles/Berkowitz in Districts 7 though 19, 25, 27, and 33 through 36. In District 26, Berkowitz's old district, Benson received 84 votes less than the Knowles/Berkowitz ticket.

How is it that this magnetic, if somewhat contentious contender, Diane Benson, was able to do so well in the usually predictable Alaska political climate? I think people viewed her as genuine. In many of the precincts in which she excelled, you can see the real Alaska and its cantankerous vitality - Dutch Harbor, Dilligham, Homer, Talkeetna, Haines.

The Diane Benson who wowed the state Democratic Party Convention and shook Ethan Berkowitz in the Fairbanks debate ten days ago, is a viable candidate, still awaiting the recognition and financial support she certainly merits.

District 6 wouldn't download:

Young -- Benson -- Knowles/Berkowitz

District 1 3,142 1,517 1,831
District 2 2,764 2,621 3,011
District 3 2,358 4,454 5,155
District 4 3,319 3,134 4,108
District 5 2,755 2,446 2,825
District 6
District 7 4,180 3,739 3,202
District 8 3,370 4,029 3.586
District 9 2,758 2,166 2,054
District 10 1,866 1,255 1,152
District 11 4,634 1,646 1,361
District 12 3,393 1,497 1,242
District 13 5,314 2,471 2,007
District 14 5,101 1,930 1,428
District 15 4,899 2,306 1,551
District 16 5,281 2,437 2,027
District 17 4,479 2,027 1,992
District 18 1,711 822 793
District 19 2,874 2,140 2,114
District 20 1,771 1,420 1,568
District 21 3,236 2,630 2,828
District 22 2,090 2,320 2,379
District 23 1,992 2,994 3,034
District 24 2,855 2,295 2,431
District 25 2,132 2,331 2,318
District 26 3,120 3,470 3,554
District 27 3,721 2,403 2,386
District 28 4,317 2,614 2,759
District 29 2,825 1,820 1,873
District 30 3,912 2,536 2,692
District 31 4,786 2,830 2,838
District 32 5,040 3,890 3,928
District 33 4,014 2,031 1,646
District 34 4,452 1,918 1,315
District 35 3,258 3,408 2,983
District 36 2,770 1.636 1,625
District 37 2,339 1,511 2,084
District 38 1,946 1,829 3,133
District 39 2,493 1,707 3,139
District 40 2,166 1,577 2,813

Update - Thursday 1:30 p.m: I just got the answer to a question I asked the Diane Benson campaign when I was putting this article together. I asked if either Tony Knowles or Ethan Berkowitz had endorsed her 2006 campaign. The answer - "Knowles and Berkowitz did not endorse Benson in 2006."

14 comments:

clark said...

"How is it that this magnetic, if somewhat contentious contender, Diane Benson, was able to do so well in the usually predictable Alaska political climate? I think people viewed her as genuine."
spot on! no gimmicks, no doublespeak. i saw her in action last campaign and thought, there's no reason on earth she should be pursuing this thankless task... the state and national party ignoring her, don young shucking every request for a debate... and she took the high road throughout; quietly, steadily chipping away at his record and policy positions. i was initially skeptical but she convinced me she was in this because of deeply held convictions and had multiple strategies to counteract decades of injustices. and and for getting 40% against young in '06, despite zero support from the democratic party -- two years later she's treated with two party insider primary opponents, both calling her not viable! note that she isn't protesting in any way, shape or form [even if i am!] -- just carrying on in her own way and at her own pace, talking about issues that matter and building support. i can't wait for her to win the primary. this is the most exciting alaska election i can recall. progressives, you better turn out your friends this august and get this woman nominated!

Anonymous said...

Phil, I was at the debate in Fairbanks too, and I can tell you one thing...she certainly didn't "shake" Berkowitz.

When she got to answer a question after Berkowitz, she answered ok, usually because she was repeating more or less exactly what he said or responding to something he said. When she answered first, she him-hawed and danced around it for the first half of her time, every time.

Every time a question was asked requiring an actual factual answer, she faltered and fell back on the same tired emotional tricks with no substance. A grieving, angry mother screaming to the heavens for justice is a formidable thing, but does she actually have more to offer than that? Give me the actual plan, not just her general recognition that there needs to be one, and I'll be impressed.

To her credit though, Ethan had the warmth of a salmon at sea that day, and Diane can certainly warm up a crowd.

Philip Munger said...

anon @ #2 - I've seen video of the Fairbanks debate, and got a completely different impression. Berkowitz appeared both stunned and angry that she wanted him to explain more about his ties to disreputable Fox executives, right-wing pundit producers and so on.

She didn't even bring up Berkowitz's past ties to Veco.

To characterize Diane Benson's statements in that debate as no more than "a grieving, angry mother screaming to the heavens," is churlish, to say the least. Not to mention a bit sexist.....

clark said...

i'll tell you what we're up against here. i was talking with a friend last night, someone i've known many years. got around to asking if he's voting in the primary and for whom. and he said, ethan, absolutely! and i asked why? and he said, he wasn't too sure, he hadn't checked out anything in print or otherwise [he's one of these people that's never used a computer in his life], hadn't read any Q&As or seen any debates, but his general impression was ethan seems like leadership material and diane is just out there looking for a sympathy vote. i strongly suggested he look at everything he can find about the past comments and policy statements from each of them, and then decide, and keep and open mind, consider the source and all that.
these are the people we need to convince. i'm going to try to assemble and print a bunch of material to give him, from this site, ADN and the web sites of both campaigns.

Anonymous said...

Anon #2 -- I totally agree with you about Ethan's performance in the Fairbanks forum. I'm not calling it a debate because it really wasn't a debate. Both candidates responded to questions with very similar answers. But Ethan lacked charisma.

However, Ethan came across as the stronger choice after that forum (to me at least) because he appears to have a much better grasp on the issues than Diane. Or maybe he's just better at communicating what he knows. Either way, my friends and I left the event feeling like Ethan had a better command of the issues raised during the debate (like when he started talking in depth about our cold climate facility.)

As for Phil's observation that Ethan looked "stunned and angry" we kind of noticed it too. But it wasn't just during that question. He seemed to look sort of angry during most of the forum. Maybe he wasn't having a good time? Or maybe his face always looks like that when he speaks. Who knows?

Or, as you put in Anon#2, "he had the warmth of a salmon at sea."

What exactly does that mean, anyway?

Philip Munger said...

I liked that term, too, but it might be pushing things a bit far, just like the comment about Benson being one-dimensional was, in its way.

I think it means "a cold fish..."

Not that I haven't been pushy here. I rather enjoy being pushy when it comes to Ted, Don, Sean - and friends of Veco.

Anonymous said...

What issue does Ethan Berkowitz have a good grasp on (or even care about) other than energy/environment?

What's amazing to me is how he can get away with so little talk on incredibly important national issues being dealt with in the House (erosion of various democratic institutions, foreign policy, health care, the economy, competing factions within the Democratic Party, etc: there's pretty much nothing substantial on his website), and then say he has "a better grasp of the issues" than Diane - a statement that's seemingly taken at face value by the news media and much of the public. It's the Emperor's New Clothes. Or "Where's the beef?" Or something like that. Am I missing something here?

Anonymous said...

Ah, VECO. Isn't funny that the VECO boys gave donations to virtually every sitting legislator on the same day, and yet Phil seems to be taking it as a moral fault of Ethan's that this happened. Have we all forgotten that Ethan was the legislator that stood on the floor of the House and screamed that it was the People's house and VECO was literally buying the legislature a vote at a time. Or does that not play into your nice, neat Ethan is the Enemy meme, Phil? How about this...when you talk about Friends of VECO, you site numbers for donations that not only are wrong, but you know are wrong and are too lazy or evil to even investigate before you spread them. Phil, I typically like your writing, and I enjoy your blog. But, when you are going to willingly run with a lie because it serves your purposes, you are just as bad as the Republicans that sold their votes to VECO and swore to the voters they were doing the People's work. Shame on you. And stop blaming it on the Juneau Empire...you surely by now know how to check APOC for facts.

Philip Munger said...

Anon @ #8 - Ethan isn't the enemy.

He's merely another old school pol with too many ties to people who are screwing the common man and woman.

If Berkowitz was so concerned about doing something about corruption in 2006, why didn't he endorse Benson in 2006? After all, her campaign was, at that time, highlighting Young's very questionable, possibly criminal ties to Jack Ambramoff, and was the first Alaska campaign to bring out Young's role in the creation of the slave empire in the CNMI. Why didn't Berkowitz, ss you put it so well, scream with Benson in 2006 in decrying Young's criminality, and offer her some support?

I have stated here that the Empire article's cut-and-paste AP story figures for Berkowitz are probably an error. What more should I do on that?

If you are wishing to write a guest post here about this. please be my guest.

Anonymous said...

Dear funkalunatic -- To answer your question, YES! you are missing something here.

Having seen Ethan speak on many occasions, whether it was during his ten year sin the Legislature, during his failed bid for Gov / Lt. Gov, or during this current campaign, I can say unequivocally that he has a better grasp on more issues than any of the other candidates running for Congress.

Using a candidate's website as the measure of their grasp of an issue is pretty ridiculous. Using your logic, are we to assume that Diane has no knowledge or position on Ethics? It's not listed as one of the issues on her website, but do you really think that she doesn't have knowledge of and a position on ethics reform?

While it is good for porn and stealing music, I really don't think the internet is the true measure of any of the candidates, Diane included. If it were, then Sean Parnell should be a half way intelligent Republican contender. Yet anybody who has ever seen him speak when he served in the Legislature or even at (his best performance) the HACA forum knows that despite how smooth, polished and well-versed his website makes him look, that is just not true.

Anonymous said...

I was also in Fairbanks for that debate, there is no way it can be said that Diane "won". Ethan had a better grasp on the issues and several times Diane tap danced around a question, looking for the facts.

Philip Munger said...

I think it's about time I did a count of how many times at this blog people who support Ethan are signed in as "anonymous," and how many times Benson supporters provide a name, link or nom de blog. Any of you "anonymouses" want to help?

Anyone is welcome to sign in here as anonymous, but you are also welcome to leave a handle or put a real name in there at the bottom of your comment. Frankly, it gives your words more weight to at least put in a nom de blog (pseudonym), especially in a thread where several people have signed on as anonymous.

Thanks - the management

Anonymous said...

Just to be fair, which I know you will be Phil, you should include those of us who are pro-Benson as well. I know I use anonymity because identity theft is a pain in the ass. I've been through it once and I'll be damned if I'm going to give some hacker punk from Florida any of my personal info.

Philip Munger said...

just pick a name - like "artichoke aficianado" or "retire_ted" to put at the bottom of the post. and keep the name.